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NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

Athens, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Darius Miller scored a game-high 19 points off the bench Tuesday night, and No. 1 Kentucky began its second stint as the country's top-ranked team with a 57-44 win over Georgia. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist added 14 points for the Wildcats (20-1, 6-0 SEC), who have won 12 straight games since a last-second loss at Indiana on December 10, which ended their initial two-week stay atop the AP poll.

 

Michael Snaer's buzzer beating three-pointer on Saturday snapped Duke's 45- game home winning streak and gave his team a 4-1 league record that ties for first place, and made Florida State one of the most talked about team's in the nation. The Seminoles, who knocked off North Carolina just a week earlier, have now won four straight games to bring their overall record to 13-6. Head coach Leonard Hamilton had to be pleased with his team's performance against Duke, as it shot 54 percent from the floor and held the Blue Devils under 40 percent shooting. Florida State is has outscored its opponents by an average of 6.8 ppg in league play so far.

 

Wake Forest enters tonight's game 11-8 overall and 2-3 in ACC play after its 71-56 victory over the Boston College Eagles on Saturday. The Demon Deacons interior play was impressive in the contest as they blocked 10 shots, won the rebounding battle 42-37, and outscored the Eagles, 40-24, in the paint. Head coach Jeff Bzdelik's team will have to improve on the defensive end if it wants to make a run in the ACC, as it ranks last in the league with an allowed average of 69.7 ppg.

 

The Demon Deacons are led by the ACC's top scoring duo C.J. Harris and Travis McKie. Harris is ranked third in the conference in scoring with 17.3 ppg and McKie is a very close fourth with an average of 17.2 ppg. McKie is also leading the team in rebounding with an average of 6.7 rpg after his 20-point, 10-rebound performance against Boston College. Harris chipped in 15 points and five assists in the win over the Eagles. Tony Chennault is a very good third option. The sophomore point guard is netting 10.6 ppg and had six assists with just one turnover his last time out.

 

Sophomore forward Doug McDermott ranks third nationally in scoring (23.2 ppg) and leads the MVC in scoring, rebounding, three-point percentage, and double- doubles. Antoine Young is second on the team in scoring (11.9 ppg). Young is due for a scoring outburst after being held under 10 points in each of his last two outings. Gregory Echenique is a physical center that averages 9.2 points, 7.1 boards, and 1.7 blocks per game. Grant Gibbs is the second best passer in the MVC with an average of 5.7 apg.

 

Rayvonte Rice and Ben Simons will need to put forth huge efforts to pull off the upset tonight. Rice is the team's leading scorer with an average of 16.9 ppg on 44.3 percent shooting from the field. The sophomore guard was held to just nine points his last time out by Northern Iowa. Simons is second on the team in scoring (15.5 ppg), but also had a difficult time against the Panthers as he was held to just seven points. Simons had scored in double-figures in nine-straight games before the forgettable performance. Kurt Alexander was big off the bench while Rice and Simons struggled, as he went 8-of-10 from the floor to score a team-high 21 points. Kraidon Woods could make an impact in this one as well, as he recently recorded a double-double with 11 points and 12 rebounds against Illinois Sate. Woods has blocked 11 shots in his last four games off the bench.

 

Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The fourth-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes continue their run through the Big Ten as they welcome the Penn State Nittany Lions to Columbus for a conference showdown at Value City Arena. Thad Matta's Buckeyes are an impressive 51-1 at home over the last three seasons, including a 14-0 mark in 2011-12. However, OSU was on the road this past weekend, blowing out Nebraska in Lincoln, 79-45. With the win, the Buckeyes moved to 5-2 in-conference.

 

Ohio State enjoys a 27-12 series advantage thanks to wins in each of the last 16 meetings.

 

Stillwater, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off their biggest win of the season, the second-ranked Missouri Tigers close out a two-game road trip when they take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Big 12 action at Gallagher-Iba Arena in Stillwater. Frank Haith's first season at the helm in Columbia has been hugely successful thus far, as the Tigers have won 18 of their first 19 games. The team had a showdown with another top-five foe this past weekend in Waco, and came out on top in a thrilling 89-88 decision over Baylor. The victory was the fourth straight for Missouri, which moved to 5-1 in conference play.

 

Travis Ford's Cowboys have certainly had their ups and downs this season and the result is a less than stellar 9-10 overall mark. Oklahoma State has really had a tough time in-conference with a mere 2-4 mark. The Cowboys enter this contest with a three-game losing streak in tow, including a 66-58 loss to Kansas State last weekend.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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